GLOBAL THREATS AS BARRIERS TO DEVELOPMENT
Jerzy Kleer, Michał Kleiber
wyd. Polish Academy of Sciences "Poland 2000 Plus" Foresight CommitteKomitet Prognoz "Polska 2000 Plus"
ISBN 978-83-8017-065-0
s.s. 144 Warsaw 2015
Publikacja finansowana ze środków Narodowego Banku Polskiego
Foreword
Chapter I. INTRODUCTION: THE MAJOR DISTINGUISHING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE THREATS FACING THE MODERN-DAY
WORLD
WORLD
Chapter II. A CLASSIFICATION OF MODERN-DAY THREATS
1. Threats of a worldwide nature
1.1 The absence of a coherent world order
1.1 The absence of a coherent world order
1.2. Discrepancies between globalization and the interests of sovereign countries
1.3. The differing pace of adjustment to change among various social groups
1.4. Difficulties in adjustment to the pace of ongoing changes
1.5.New, previously unknown types of risk
2. Systemic threats
2.1. Political and institutional crises
2.2. A series of economic crises, or a crisis of capitalism itself?
2.3 Social crises and the disruption of the traditional structure of capitalist society
3. Threats related to human survival
3.1. The growing conviction of a lack of security
3.2. Widening income differentials
3.3. The squandering of resources
3.4. Having a job as a source of income
3.5. Consequences of population growth on a global scale
3.6. Environmental degradation and climate change
3.7. Disruption of the public sphere
3.8. Human migration
3.9. Rivalry between political and economic powers
3.10. Socioeconomic pathologies
3.11. Megacities
3.12. Shortcomings of education and scientific research in the information-revolution era
Chapter III. THE PERISTENCE OF MODERN-DAY THREATS
1. The economic model
2. Excessive imitation
3. Consequences of the population explosion
4. Consequences of technological progress
5. Rivalry between major powers and their dominance
6. Cultural diversity
Chapter IV. CIVILIZATIONAL TURNING POINTS
1. Time as a factor determining the pace of change
2. The geographical reach of new civilization
3. Civilizational continuity
Chapter V. THREATS FACING POLAND
SUMMARY
Bibliography
Supplement
Ranking of threats: towards an age-based assessment of perceptions
Tables